1. France – after 45 days of confinement, a favorable but slow dynamic: scissor effect in progress (hospitalizations & resuscitation)
France: scissor effect in progress (Hospitalizations: more C + discharges than C + admissions)
2. Time vision: we are following Italy 10 days later
Comparative chronological evolution of resuscitation cases France / Italy
3. France – Provisional: resuscitation beds available (the stake from May 16)
• Cova beds (+) below 4000 today (3827 versus 3878 yesterday) with a maximum capacity to date estimated at 9000 beds.
• Post-deconfinement projection, based on 3 elements: historical data, incubation time (D7 with an expected increase around May 16), and the influx of patients C (-) (3305 out of 7183 beds occupied)
4. Europe : A 3-speed Europe: peak going (decontainment) – plateau – epidemic phase
5. World: At the global level: India for the first time in the top 10 incidences (new cases / day): let’s follow the BRI (Brazil-Russia-India)
6.World: international comparative results of “country startegies”
The media follow the Covidminute analyzes and finally add the existing result indicator (admittedly not perfect because of the tests) but available, to assess the impact of the “Country” strategies
A / Geopathology: a real politico-cultural “crash test” asking us about the risk / benefit of our democracies faced with a health threat lasting more than 3 months:
A.1 We have observed 2 types of cultural reactions to the same health threat:
- Cultures where the general interest (the group) takes precedence over the individual interest: the Confuceens (democratic or not), Israel,…
- Cultures where individual interest is a dogma (from our history): Western democracies…
- Note concerning Confucian Asia: submission yes, but sometimes relative with possible violent reactions (South Korea with the previous President, or the “yellow umbrellas” of Hong Kong, ..).
A.2 A result indicator (mortality / Million inhabitant :
Certainly not a perfect indicator because many countries do not have the same facilities for carrying out the tests) but which is available, and prompts 2 comments:
A.2.1 The “security” (= the threat is permanent) democratic
States like Israel or South Korea or the Kingdom of Morocco are in the “top 10” of the countries with the best scores (<50).
-Assuming the absence of temperature effect, and smoothing over the ages of the generally younger populations (for Morocco), the figures are hardly questionable (if the resuscitations were full, we would know).
-A major reason is the speed of reaction via a single unit of command used to crisis management (terrorism, etc.), in order to anticipate the virus for a time and to implement health measures on the 6 key parameters: Individual : ”3M” (Mask-Main-Meter of barrier measures, and Collective: “3T” (Test-Transfer = isolation, Tracing = application).
A.2.2 Western States, more in search of consensus
And which are more often than not one time behind the virus, presenting scores 20 to 50 times higher (Italy 475, France 379, USA 204 but constantly increasing …)
A.3 4 concrete elements, where we observed a major difference in terms of “citizen measure” for some, and liberticidal measures for others:
- Mandatory confinement: with protests supported in opposition to the USA: between the Ayatollahs of the sanitary versus supporters of “business as usual”.
- Mask outside: remember that our team considers that: “The mask is in the Covid what the condom is in the Winter” (Dr Athmani dixit).
The question is not whether to wear it or not, but whether it should be mandatory or not. Note, for example, that in Ukraine it has become mandatory.
- Tracing: this supposes the wide-scale use of anonymous application (=> file ….), which is still discussed in France.
- Compulsory isolation: in France, this measure which we consider to be major for 3 months, is considered liberticide and unpopular. Thus we send patients with little symptom at home, contaminating the rest of the family (contagiousness estimated between 3 and 5 individuals by C + )….
A.4 The French case: or place the “cut off” between sanitary and socio-political:
Note 2 inconsistencies highlighting our historic battles:
- Cancellation of the Paris marathon, but events authorized in early March.
- An asymptomatic C (+) is allowed to move (return home encouraged), but a C (-) coming from Shanghai will probably have to undergo a quarantine
We know the indiscipline of our population (see fraud in the metro, attitude / confinement …), still far from the Scandinavian citizen (respect, …). Consequently, let us hope that the spirit of responsibility of our fellow citizens will be stronger than the fines.
A.5 In total, there is no ideal system :
between individual freedom (mental comfort) and collective freedom (organic comfort: physical or health security), or place the cursor?
Each country reacts according to its values and thus questions its Identity.
Note that China, which has used its cultural advantage (wearing a mask) as well as all the technological means available (video surveillance, WeChat application for geolocation, tests, isolation, etc.) to neutralize viral diffusion, will ride the wave to quickly implement its “social credit”, which we will talk about shortly in a “Good Morning Asia”
A.6 The debate in France will be topical, if … stocks are there: which is not yet the case!
B. Epidemiological map of deconfinement: a France from West to East “Green-Yellow-Red”
B.1 At the dynamic level at D45 of deconfinement: the decline continues (scissor effect)
B.2 In total: A synthetic preparation map
viral circulation and number of resuscitation beds with a double gradient East West and North South.
B.3 Result indicator at regional level
For those who want to go further in the figures our data analyst Claire Gabay provides you with this table for reflection…; nevertheless beware of confusion bias (not bringing a cause too quickly has an effect, because you have to compare “apples with apples”, and the ecosystems are sometimes different)
C. WORLD: BRIs (Brazil, Russia, India…) under tension
With the contribution of Dr Bachir Athmani, Stéphane and Alison, companions from the start, whom I thank again for their unfailing support.
Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths, etc.) which are extremely questionable as they vary from one country to another (example: availability of tests), with measurement bias and therefore major under-reporting in certain countries.
C. 1. Prevalence: 2,126,000 active cases confirmed under observation
Epidemic growth: Over 3 million cumulative historical cases
Geographic vision: 4 active poles: Americas, Europe, Middle East, Russia.
By continent: Americas, 50% of active cases declared, Europe 30%, Middle East and Russia at 7%
Top 10 countries
United States 931k (yesterday 891k)
United Kingdom 154k (yesterday 150k)
Russia 108k (yesterday 100k) Italy 101k (yesterday 101k) France 93k (yesterday 93k)
Spain 74k (yesterday 76k)
Turkey 63k (yesterday 65k)
Brazil 49k (yesterday 47k)
Netherlands 35k (yesterday 35k)
Germany 29k (yesterday 30k)
C.2 Incidence: India in the Top 10 first time in 2 months (first case about 2 months ago)
81,000 new cases detected yesterday
According to the weather :
By country :
United States 28k (34k yesterday)
Russia 10k (8k yesterday)
United Kingdom 5k (6k yesterday)
Brazil 4k (6k yesterday)
Spain 3k (4k yesterday)
Turkey 2k (2k yesterday)
Peru 2k (3k yesterday)
India, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh, Belarus, Ukraine, France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Canada, Mexico, Chile, Ecuador: 1 to 2k
C.3 Historical vision of the epidemic:
in 4 months, the nanoparticle has spread all over the planet and affects all sectors (health, economic, social, political,)
At the health level: 4 billion confined people, nearly 3 million historical cases declared, 2 million active cases declared (and 240 k deaths)
Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masks-Meter) to protect yourself… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.
Trust and solidarity for this collective fight
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
- “All success is collective”, thanks to:
- the whole “Medical” team of the “GCRMN” type (Global Covid Medical Network): Dr Bachir Athmani, Dr Marc Abecassis, Dr Marc Genton, Dr Mohamed Fadel, Dr Emily Kara, Dr Ibrahim Souare, Dr Jonathan Taieb, ,,. ..) that allow this project to exist,
- the entire data analysis and IT team : Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his past contribution)
- the entire “Communication” team (Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie, Alison, …): without whom this project would not have been possible.
- all financial sponsors including the Paul Bennetot Foundation (foundation of the Matmut under the aegis of the Fondation de l’Avenir), Benjamin Denis & Société de Consulting B Square, Dr Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout & TAG Advisory and, Gilles Langourieux who work for “Citizen Actions”
- If you feel like a patron or of partners to finance IT development (all the others have been volunteers for 88 days!), Don’t hesitate to contact me ( firstname.lastname@example.org ).
- Also, our team even if partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you … because there is no shortage of work …!